Don Mattingly made a damned-if-you-do, damned if-you-don’t decision before Game 3 of the 2014 NLCS vs. the Cardinal on Monday and, no, it had nothing to do with trimming his sideburns. The Dodgers manager announced win or lose, he’d start ace Clayton Kershaw on three days rest in Game 4. Los Angeles ultimately lost Game 3 by a score of 3-1, thanks in part of a bullpen that might rival the Detroit Tigers for its inability to get outs.
The potential second-guessing doesn’t look so bad on Tuesday with the Dodgers facing elimination vs. trying to close out the Cardinals on their turf. If the Dodgers were to go on to lose Game 4 with Dan Haren pitching over Kershaw it’s probably not going to sit too well with the fans. Yes, Kershaw could conceivably always come in relief but expecting him to perform like Mike Mussina in Game 7 of the 2003 World Series might be asking too much. If Kershaw is pitching in relief it doesn’t bode well for the Dodgers chances anyways.
Kershaw pitched on three days rest in last year’s NLDS vs. the Braves, allowing two unearned runs over six innings and left with the game tied. Los Angeles went on to win 4-3. Via the OC Register, starting pitchers since 1995 on three days rest have a 4.53 ERA in the postseason.
Of course there’s the matter of the Cardinals being “inside” Kershaw’s head. Kershaw, the presumptive National League Cy Young and MVP, was humming along up 6-2 before an eight-run seventh inning implosion. For whatever the reason, Kershaw’s typical dominance doesn’t hold sway over the Cardinals:
There’s also a highly possible scenario where Kershaw pitches reasonably well, but can only go 5-6 innings. How much good is it to pitch Kershaw in this scenario if the Dodgers pen — Kenley Jansen notwithstanding — still has to pick up critical outs? Haren pitched to a 2.70 ERA in 30 innings in September, for whatever that is worth.
Facing the end of the season and without a better option, Mattingly doesn’t have a great choice, however if he can somehow piece the Dodgers into Game 5 he’ll have Zack Greinke ready to go. The short five-game and seven-game series produce these types of gambles every October and there’s not much of a way for managers to tip-toe around them save for four or five equally strong starting pitchers. The better question for Mattingly is why bring in lefty Scott Elbert to face Kolten Wong — who hit the game-deciding home run Monday night — when the lefty-batting Cardinals second baseman hits over 60 points higher vs. southpaws.
As always, if Kershaw shakes off whatever hex the Cardinals have over him and pitches Los Angeles into Game 5 on Thursday, the decision might not exactly look smart but it will be acceptable. If not Mattingly faces another winter of second-guessing and reminders that without a bullpen bridge it’s increasingly difficult to win in the postseason.
This has been Yardwork.
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